Yuhei Miyauchi | Living in a Ghost Town: The Geography of Depopulation and Aging

How do depopulation and population aging evolve differently across regions within a
country, and what are their implications for aggregate economic activity and regional
inequality? Using spatially disaggregated data from Japan over the past several decades,
we show that rural areas have experienced significantly faster depopulation and aging
than urban areas, driven by low fertility and sustained out-migration of young cohorts.
Regions undergoing these trends face declining local amenities and rising per-capita
public service costs. To study the future evolution and economic consequences of these
dynamics, we develop and calibrate a dynamic life-cycle spatial general equilibrium
model. The model predicts widening geographic disparities in depopulation, aging, and
economic activity in the coming centuries. While subsidies to declining regions can
lower regional inequality, they come at the cost of lower aggregate efficiency and higher
public service expenditures

Global Japan Lab, PIIRS | View More Events